Unconfirmed: a Chinese paper says iPhone Duo orders are up 30 per cent, as JP Morgan dismisses iPhone cut fearsUnconfirmed: a Chinese paper says iPhone Duo orders are up 30 per cent, as JP Morgan dismisses iPhone cut fears

A Chinese financial newspaper claims, without evidence, that Apple has raised its iPhone Duo orders by 30 per cent.

The report is a two-sentence exclusive in Securities Times, by reporter Yan Cui, published on 10 October and credited to unnamed people in Apple's supply chain. On our grading it is unverified: a supply chain claim with no document shown, from an outlet without an Apple track record that we know of. English coverage, led by 9to5Mac on 12 October, traces back to this one item. Apple has said nothing.

What does the report claim?

• iPhone Duo orders are up 30 per cent, but the total still does not exceed 10 million units.
• iPhone 18 Pro orders are cut by 10 to 15 per cent.
• iPhone 18 Pro Max orders are raised by 10 to 15 per cent.
• Total orders for the iPhone 18 Pro range are unchanged.

The paper does not say what the 30 per cent is measured from, which period the orders cover, or which suppliers its sources work for. 9to5Mac adds that, from prior estimates of 6 to 7 million units, the new figure is likely close to 10 million. It does not say whose estimates those were.

How does it fit the iPhone cut report?

It contradicts it. On 9 October Nikkei Asia reported that Apple had cut October component orders for both iPhone 18 Pro models by at least 15 per cent. Securities Times says one model went down, the other went up and the total did not move. Nikkei was counting component orders, and Securities Times does not say what it is counting.

JP Morgan sided with the calmer reading. In a note seen by AppleInsider and summarised by 9to5Mac, its analysts said the reported cuts were consistent with the adjustments Apple makes every year. They kept an Overweight rating and raised their price target from 340 to 360 dollars. 9to5Mac says JP Morgan expects 8.5 million iPhone Duo sales in the December quarter, and expects iPhone revenue to slip about 2 per cent year on year while Apple's total revenue grows about 2 per cent. We could not read the note itself, and no other outlet has reported it.

Our take

Do the multiplication before believing the headline number. Thirty per cent on top of 6 million is 7.8 million, and on top of 7 million is 9.1 million. Neither is close to 10 million. The only firm figure in the original is a ceiling, under 10 million, and the step from 30 per cent to almost 10 million rests on estimates nobody has sourced.

Orders are also not phones. We have already reported unconfirmed claims that iPhone Duo assembly yields are near 60 per cent, and Bloomberg's Mark Gurman says Duo stock will stay limited even with more than 150 demo units on Fifth Avenue. A bigger order does not help if the hinge and screen cannot be made fast enough. JP Morgan's 8.5 million for the quarter sits inside the range our arithmetic gives, which is the most that can be said for the 30 per cent.

APPDOOK's reading is that the Pro Max shift is the more plausible part. Buyers already spending on an iPhone 18 Pro may decide the extra 100 dollars for the larger model is worth it, and that would show up exactly as Securities Times describes. None of these reports can confirm it, though. Duo pre-orders open on 16 October and Apple reports on 2 November, and both will say more than any supply chain source.