TrendForce sees memory costs raising laptop prices and cutting shipments in 2027, the pressure behind Apple's June risesTrendForce sees memory costs raising laptop prices and cutting shipments in 2027, the pressure behind Apple's June rises

TrendForce forecasts that notebook shipments will fall in 2027 as rising memory and processor costs push prices up.

In a release dated 8 October, the research firm puts the fall at a low single-digit percentage, and says it could reach high single digits if brands pass the full rise in DRAM and CPU costs on to buyers. It says the 2026 figures were flattered by better CPU supply, early buying and demand pulled forward, which it says does not indicate a meaningful recovery. TrendForce does not mention Apple.

How much of a laptop is memory now?

For a mainstream 900 dollar notebook, TrendForce estimates the processor, DRAM and SSD made up about 68 per cent of the bill of materials in the third quarter. Brands have three options, it says: raise prices, absorb the cost and accept lower margins, or cut specifications such as memory capacity. Its 30 September release puts fourth-quarter contract prices up 10 to 15 per cent for conventional DRAM and 15 to 20 per cent for NAND flash, with rises slowing, and says PC brands are already cutting SSD capacity in mainstream models. It expects DRAM to stay tight through 2027 because AI servers take the advanced capacity, and NAND shortages might ease in the second half.

The Verge reported on 9 October that the shortage is reviving DDR4, with a 32GB kit at 260 dollars against 620 dollars for DDR5, and new Intel chips for the older socket expected early next year.

What has Apple said about memory costs?

Apple has already raised prices. On 25 June it put up the price of several products and said it had never seen a component cost rise this much, this quickly, CNN reported.

US prices, as reported by CNN on 25 June 2026. On its 30 July earnings call, Tim Cook called memory pricing a 100-year flood and said Apple had reluctantly raised prices, and the finance chief, Kevan Parekh, attributed more than all of the fall in gross margin since March, after tariffs, to memory. Apple expected memory costs in the September quarter to be higher still. It reports those results on 2 November.

Investors are watching the same thing. After Nikkei Asia reported on 9 October that Apple had cut iPhone 18 Pro component orders following a 100 dollar price rise, MacRumors reported shares down more than 2.5 per cent in early trading. They recovered most of that and closed at 336.64 dollars, down 1.1 per cent on the day, according to Nasdaq's trading data.

Our take

TrendForce's forecast describes the PC industry, not Apple, but the Mac is not shielded from it. The Mac shares the same memory market as every other laptop, and Apple's own numbers show it paying more each quarter. The one route the rest of the industry has, falling back to cheaper DDR4, is closed to Apple: Mac memory is part of the chip package, and even the new Mac mini has its storage soldered down. That leaves price and margin.

Apple has already chosen price once this year, on its cheapest products. TrendForce's third option, cutting memory, is the one to watch for the Macs Bloomberg expects on 27 October. Cutting memory would sit badly with Apple Intelligence, which needs plenty of it, so higher prices for memory and storage upgrades look the more likely place for the cost to land.

APPDOOK's reading is that the market, not the forecast, is the more useful signal this week. IDC counted Mac shipments down 11 per cent in a PC market that fell 20, so Apple is holding up better than most. But a share price that drops on news of softer iPhone demand after a price rise shows how little room investors think Apple has to keep raising prices without paying for it in sales.